A Changing Market

After the real estate frenzy Mueller experienced during the pandemic, things have settled into a new normal. But what does that mean for Mueller residents? How did 2025 compare to previous years? And what can we expect in 2026 and beyond? Hilary Herrin, founder of Mueller Silent Market and expert in everything Mueller, weighs in on where Mueller has been, and where it may be headed next.

What is Mueller Silent Market?

I moved to Austin in 1996 and still remember flying in and out of the old Robert Mueller Municipal Airport. Coming from a big city, I was amazed that an airport could be so close to everything. After living in Austin for several years, I moved away and dabbled in real estate in other parts of the country, but Austin kept calling me home.

When I returned and learned about the vision for transforming the former airport into a new, master-planned community, I knew instantly that Mueller was where I wanted to plant my roots.

I began working in Mueller during its earliest days, when most of the activity centered around new construction, and many buyers were still hesitant about East Austin. As I helped buyers navigate the neighborhood, I noticed another trend emerging: a growing number of homeowners were curious about selling but didn’t want to compete openly with the flood of new construction listings. That’s how the Mueller Silent Market was born.

Over time, what started as a niche approach evolved into a full, neighborhood focused real estate practice. Today, I still specialize in off MLS and early access opportunities, but I also handle traditional listings, investment properties, and long-term homeowner strategy for people who see Mueller as more than just a place to live, but as a long-term lifestyle and investment.

What trends do you predict will shape the Mueller real estate market in 2026?

I think 2026 in Mueller will be shaped by three big themes: normalization, lifestyle, and segmentation.

Normalization. After the wild swings of the pandemic boom and the correction that followed, 2026 will feel more like a “normal” market. That means longer days on the market than we saw in 2021 to 2022, more negotiation and price growth in the low single digits rather than double-digit jumps.

Lifestyle. Buyers are doubling down on quality of life, walkability, parks, restaurants, schools, and commute. This is where Mueller truly shines as a mixed-use, master planned community close to University of Texas, downtown, and the airport.

Segmentation. Not every product type in Mueller will behave the same. Yard homes, townhomes, and condos each have their own micro market, with competitiveness varying by price points and monthly carrying costs.

How is Mueller’s market behaving compared to the greater Austin market?

I think 2026 in Mueller will be shaped by the greater Austin market, which has shifted from overheated to more balanced, with higher inventory levels, more price reductions, and modest year over year price movement after roughly an 18% to 20% correction from the 2022 peak.

Mueller is experiencing those same broader forces, higher interest rates, and more choice for buyers, but it has proven more resilient because of its location, planning, and amenities. While Austin overall has seen a notable reset, Mueller’s average home values have softened only slightly and remain well above pre-2020 levels.

Compared to the wider Austin market, Mueller behaves like a high demand core neighborhood: not immune to macro trends, but consistently a relative standout.

Do you expect 2026 to favor buyers, sellers, or be more balanced?

For Mueller, 2026 should feel mostly balanced, with a slight tilt toward whichever side is better prepared.

Buyers who are patient, preapproved, and realistic on price have more leverage than during the frenzy years, especially on homes that aren’t turnkey or are mispriced. Sellers who price correctly from day one, present beautifully, and are open to concessions such as rate buydowns or closing cost assistance, can still achieve excellent results. The days of “list on Thursday, 20 offers by Monday” are behind us for now. This is a more adult, negotiation driven market, but it’s far from distressed.

How will interest rates, inventory, and economic conditions?

Mortgage rates are expected to remain elevated by historical standards in 2026, likely in the mid 5% to low 6% range. That keeps buyers sensitive to pricing and keeps sellers from over inflating prices.

Inventory is another key factor. Austin as a whole is hovering near a balanced market, but Mueller is largely built out and geographically constrained. Here, “new inventory” mostly means resales plus a limited number of remaining new construction units. That scarcity continues to support values.

Austin’s job market, especially in tech, healthcare, and higher education, remains fundamentally strong, even if growth is slower than peak pandemic years. That’s important for Mueller, which attracts relocating professionals and longtime Austinites buying with a long-term horizon.

What types of homes are most in demand right now?

Single family yard homes remain highly sought after, particularly those with usable outdoor space, flex rooms, or garage apartments.

Larger townhomes, three bedrooms, or three bedrooms plus office layouts, are also in strong demand among buyers who want a “house feel” without full yard maintenance or the higher price points.

Is Mueller attracting a different kind of buyer than in past years?

The demographic mix is largely the same: young professionals, families, empty nesters, and relocators, but how people use their homes has evolved. We’re seeing more hybrid and remote workers who truly live in the neighborhood during the workday and need dedicated office space. There’s more multigenerational living, with families intentionally clustering nearby. And more longtime Austinites are trading older homes for newer, energy efficient, low maintenance options in Mueller.

What do you expect will happen with home prices in 2026?

Barring an unexpected economic shock, I expect flat to low single digit appreciation overall. Turnkey, well-appointed homes should hold or gain modestly, while properties with functional or cosmetic challenges may need to adjust price or offer incentives.

This is a market where quality and strategy matter more than ever.

Is Mueller still a strong long-term investment?

Absolutely! Mueller’s fundamentals haven’t changed: a centrally located, transit-oriented, award winning community with parks, retail, employment centers, and a strong emphasis on sustainability. Year to year fluctuations happen, but over a 10-plus year horizon, the combination of location and planning continues to reward patient homeowners.

What advice would you give homeowners considering selling in 2026?

Start earlier than you think. Give yourself 60 to 90 days to prepare, price for today’s market, and focus on presentation. Fresh paint, landscaping, and thoughtful staging can dramatically affect perception and net results. Partnering with a true neighborhood specialist matters. Mueller is hyper local, and understanding its micro markets is key to maximizing value.

What might surprise people most about the 2026 Mueller market?

How normal it feels. 2026 will be steady, data driven, and negotiation oriented with a clear separation between homes that are dialed in and strategic versus those that aren’t. In that environment, both buyers and sellers can win.